Climate change scenarios for 2030 indicate an overall warming over the Indian subcontinent associated with increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. The annual mean surface air temperature is projected to rise by 1.7-2.0 degrees Celsius, said the report, released by the Science and Technology Ministry and the Ministry of Environment and Forests.
Prepared by the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA), it is the first assessment report on the impact of climate change on agriculture, health, water and forests in four regions – the Himalayas, the Western Ghats, the coastal zone and the northeast – of the country in 2030. The INCCA comprised 220 scientists from 120 research institutions across the country. It is a preliminary report on differentiated impact of climate change on various sectors in various regions. The report has some alarming and some positive trends.
According to the report, the coastal areas are likely to witness maximum increase in temperature while winters are expected to get warmer. The report projected rise in mean sea level, increase in precipitation, severe drought and flood events, vast spread in malaria in some regions but on the positive side it found increase in yield of some marine fishes and gain in yield of rice.
Sea level along the Indian coast has been rising at the rate of 1.3mm/year and is likely to rise in consonance with global sea level rise in future. Further projections indicate that the frequency of cyclones is likely to decrease in 2030, with increase in cyclonic intensity, it said.
The report projected moderate to extreme drought severity in 2030 for the Himalayan region as compared to other regions. All the regions are likely to experience flooding which are exceeding existing magnitudes by 10 to 30 percent.
The researchers focused on spread of malaria due to change in climate and found that the disease is projected to spread in new areas in Himalayan region, northeast region and decrease in coastal region while there will be no change in the Western Ghats.
This is the second major publication on INCCA. In May this year, a report on GHG Emissions 2007 was released, making India first developing country to publish such data.
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